Friday, July 31, 2009

Pending breakout?

Here is the 30' SPY...

Click for larger, browser back.


Notice the trend lines, thats called a Symmetrical Triangle. We should break positive from here.
I'm really hoping the SPY can test 100 today. If it clears 100, we will be very bullish.

Wednesday, July 29, 2009

Here is the 60' SPY chart:



Click for larger, Browser back.

Notice that the recent swing low was a bit lower than its predecessor. Then notice that the MACD made a higher low. That's called a divergence. Such conditions are a prerequisite for some buy signals; to some traders, it is a buy signal.

We'll see. I am holding several long positions, and no shorts... pretty durned trusting!

These days, a consolidation seems to serve as a pullback, therefore, we might be getting ready for another up leg.

We gotta pull back sometime... this many green candles is just ridiculous.

Monday, July 27, 2009

Here is a brief video clip that shows just how hard one of our elected officials is working to represent us.

freedomslighthouse.com

Friday, July 24, 2009

Situational awareness

Here is a 5 minute chart of today's EBAY Price action...



Here is a 10 minute chart of today's EBAY Price action...


The two images were captured at virtually the same time but tell very different stories.

This adds to the complexity of our work. One must be aware of all the timeframes, and what the broad market is doing, and what the sector is doing. All at the same time.

The only option is to trade on a daily chart and ignore the intra-day fluctuations.

Thursday, July 23, 2009

The MA crossover trade.

OK... in the Free Trading Videos chat room today somebody reminded me of a stock purchase strategy... the Moving Average crossover. I was able to tease the Finviz stock screener to produce a fairly nice representation of stocks in this category with at least minimal fundamental qualifications.

Here is the link

The goal is to buy when the 20 ma surpasses the 50 ma. Obviously, other MA combinations are also interesting, however, this is the best I can do today.

Yah yah... when to sell? One obvious answer would be when they uncross.

Notes:
- This will obviously only work in a sustained bull market.
- Make sure the 50 ma is in an uptrend, or at least flat, when you buy.
- Make sure the SPY 50 ma is in an uptrend or at least flat when you buy, else, your poor trade won't have a chance... it will be counter the major trend.

Enjoy!

Update:

Extreme Price change can invalidate the signal:

Update on UGA, SLV, and UGA - Humiation

It's 12:40 rite now... I finished my lunch (noodles and a can of sardines) and pause to check up on a few of my favorites... what have they done today?

UGA is up 3.95%
Slv is up 1.26%
URE is up 8.75% today

I sold UGA at $31.31 it is currently trading at $32.58
I sold SLV at $13.22 it is currently trading at $13.63
I sold URE at $3.56 it is currently trading at $4.00

My advice to readers: do as I say, not as I do.

Sheesh.

I have managed to catch the ear of a Tao Master. I hope he can teach me to do better.

Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Oops

Sadly, I have stopped out of UGA, SLV and URE. I read this as a sign; the market seems to be changing. I'll be waiting a few days for either recovery or correction. After all, it has been a LOT of up days in a row. an unsustainable trend.

Here is a great article: The_Stimulus_Plan_Is_Working_In_China

Tuesday, July 21, 2009

Well I'm certainly confused!

"As Commander in Chief, I will do whatever it takes to defend the American people...
... That's why I'm grateful that the Senate just voted against an additional 1.75 billion dollars to buy F-22 fighter jets...
... At a time when we are fighting two wars, and facing a serious deficit, this would have been an inexcusable waste of money...
... Every dollar of waste in our defense budget is a dollar we can't spend to support our troops, or prepare for future threats, or protect the American people...
Our budget is a zero sum game and if more money goes to F-22's, it is our troops and citizens who loose.
... Now, I've also said that health care costs are the biggest drivers of our deficit..." Obama on Bloomberg 7-21-9

Well folks, that leaves me with questions...
- Why are we sure that we won't need the F-22 next year? It seems to me that we are fighting two wars. I am also not forgetting Korea, Georgia (Russia), and others.
- Won't the displaced engineers, trades people, suppliers, shippers, writers, logisticians, etc. risk becoming unemployed?

Seems to me that "stimulus" should like employing engineers, trades people, suppliers, shippers, writers, logisticians, etc.

If the F-22 budget is a "zero sum game", then how can we afford to spend a trillion on the health care bill?

Monday, July 20, 2009

Breakout!

Here is an hourly chart of URE the Ultra Real Estate ETF...

Click for larger, Browser back...

Today, was a pretty monumental day in the markets. The SPY broke its resistance line at $95 and held there for about an hour. Only the end of day sell-off was able to cause Price to retreat.

I celebrated by buying a half sized position in URE. Yes, it could risky. Yes, we are still in a recession. Yes, we will still be in one for a while. Yes, real estate problems are still bountiful. On the other hand... can you think of a sector with fewer shorts against it?

It seems in the chart above, that Price is ready to run since there is a breakout here as well.

I'll be maintaining my stops so that risk is under control, but they will (hopefully) be loose enough that Price has room to continue a pattern of higher highs and higher lows. That's what its all about!

Also of note is SLV...

Click for larger.... yada yada

...and UGA with a very similar chart. I have been in them both for a few days now. Funny thing about these, they would be of no use to a day-trader at all yet in a swing, we can make good profits!

Friday, July 17, 2009

Workspace

This is just a handy little spot to post charts as needed for the chat room that I moderate...
Up to 100 traders, most of them are serious, lots of eyes on an ever-changing marketplace.
http://www.freetradingvideos.com/chat/ (note: sign-up is easy and free)

Here is a 10 year $vix chart for my friends in the room...


Click for larger... Browser back


Wednesday, July 15, 2009

Here is the current SPY hourly chart...



Click for larger... Browser back.

Notice that the downtrend has been broken.

I took the loss in my short positions (article below) and took a few hours off to mourn the loss of my invested capital.

Upon returning, I got to work and recouped some of the loss by daytrading a few short interest stocks.

Market volatility is picking up, therefore, this would be a good time to consider daytrading. Do be careful though, three updays cry out for a profit taking pull-back.

15% of the earnings reports are due this week.... the remainder next week. Be cautious!

Saturday, July 11, 2009

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The vNewsletter is available HERE at a special discounted and grandfathered price until Wednesday the 15th. I recommend it.

Nevellier's flawed blog post (and then some)

This may seem unrelated to the markets at first blush. Ultimately, it is connected at the hip.

Typically, I enjoy reading the Nevellier blog. A recent (irresponsible) post offended me. My response to the post follows. I copied it here for posterity. If the moderators at Nevellier do not publish my comment, I will re-submit it again some day.

But here's the thing folks... We gotta start speaking up for America while she is still recognizable. Our dollars, our rights, our businesses, our courts, our Constitution, the best health care system in the world, and more might be at risk of "change." For those of us concerned about these changes, now is the time to begin speaking out.

....
Dear Sirs,
Typically, I enjoy reading your posts. This one is an exception.

"...it seems that we must hope Mr. Obama is re-elected,..."

It is not in my heart to do that.

As a patriot, I vowed to defend the Constitution which is apparently the opposite of the Obama administration. The bailouts, the takeovers, and the deficits hardly seem either Constitutionally or fiscally sound.

Your article seems to have praise for Clinton while totally disregarding the recession he left us. Also overlooked is the fact that President Bush oversaw the Clinton recession recovery and subsequent all-time market high. (I could continue in this direction but shall not.)

It seems that I hope for two things, a fiscal conservative to bring America back to her rightful position of strength, and a less biased newsletter.

----

Something to keep in mind:

"The Cato Institute was strongly opposed to the $787 billion package passed earlier this year, and would oppose additional stimulus packages on the same grounds."

"Once government expands beyond the level of providing core public goods such as the rule of law, there tends to be an inverse relationship between the size of government and economic growth," argues Cato scholar Daniel J. Mitchell. "Doing more of a bad thing is not a recipe for growth."

----

Obamacare does make for an interesting search term.

The Obama administration has sent an email to me! They want me to call my Senators (phone numbers provided) to discuss their support for socailzed healthcare. While I do intend to do just that, my response is a bit different than he suggests. This article, and this one, will be references for the calls. Sheesh... There are tons of references! For those who think that Canada is a great model to follow, here's a great list of references. I gotta "just say no." I gotta let my voice be heard. Can you do that too?

----

In effect, our President can sell "refrigerators to Eskimos" at will. Congress supports this because they enjoy the resulting commissions. Ditto, the "fourth leg" of the government, the media. That leaves the third leg, the Supreme Court. Hmm... is that arena about to receive "change?" Folks, we gotta speak out in support of the Constitution, liberty, and free markets, else, they will be gone.


Friday, July 10, 2009

New Bull Bear Indicator

Update to my bullbear-indicator-recipe
Here is a picture of my updated Bull/Bear indicator...


Click for larger, Browser back...

Its a FreeStockCharts.com chart.
Its a 10 minute/one day chart.
It's the 3x leveraged S & P index, UPRO.
It's a comparison of the 3x leveraged short S & P, SPXU.
The Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) has been enabled.

Note the chop and overlap from 9 to 11:00. That is a "no signal" condition... not a good time to try to identify market direction.

Note that the UPRO candles are WAY below the SPXU line graph and the red VWAP... very bearish!

Here is another way to acomplish the same thing.... but without using FreeStockCharts.com

Also see the Alternate Bull/Bear Index.

Wednesday, July 8, 2009

SPY Daily...


Click for larger, Browser back...

The support line I have drawn has been thoroughly broken. $87.00 has been holding as the next level of support.

The Dow has a similar appearance.

I am expecting further downside, therefore, I have purchased two investments... EFU, and SIJ.
Had to overcome my natural tendancy to buy more ETF's and more shares.

Will but more bear ETF's when the Nasdaq cracks.

Wednesday, July 1, 2009