Thursday, February 19, 2009

Market Update

Let's see how today's activity affected our favorite ETF's:
- FAS/FAZ, Financial Sector: FAZ, Every day is a higher high
- ERX/ERY Energy Sector: ERY, Confirmed bull market
- TNA/TZA Small Cap Sector: TZA, Confirmed bull market
- BGU/BGZ Large Cap Sector: BGZ, Every day is a higher high

From the list above, ERY and TZA should be the best choices since the trend has been confirmed by a pull-back and resumption. Funny though, BGZ, instead of pulling back, consolidated. I am not sure what that means except dig deeper!

So, dig we shall
FAZ: Weak resistance to break before Jan. 20 high. Expect some difficulty in making the next $17.
ERY: January 20th resistance not broken yet. Smooth sailing for two dollars gain.
TZA and BGZ: January 20th resistance has been broken. Should be smooth sailing for at least the next five dollars.

Which is best? Nobody has a crystal ball. I plan to hold at least two of them for at least a few days.

The Dow closed at 7466 which is lower than recent lows. In fact, one has to look back seven years to find a lower close. The Dow, the Transports, the S&P, and the Nasdaq are all officially bear markets.

Ten long days ago, in my post bulls-are-running-nasdaq, I reported that the Nasdaq was in a confirmed bull market. I had over time documented the bullishness of FAS and CAB. That is all gone now, they are all in confirmed bear trends. The bear ETF's are outrageously profitable in this time of "change you can believe in." I am a believer!

No comments:

Post a Comment