Due to today's market strength, a line in the sand has been broken.
Google broke the $400 mark just now! $400.01 was the peak. This (in my mind) opens the market up to reach new highs.
I have little hope that GOOG will close the day above $400, but the line in the sand has been broken. Who knows what tomorrow will bring? If this strength holds, goog will soon reach $450.
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
S & P Downtrend
I just finished re-watching a video that suggested the market should pull back, form a higher low and then take off. Funny thing, it was an old video and the market has yet to pull back. We need this pull-back before sidelined money will be drawn in.
Since this was our third lower day in a row, one hopes the process has begun. That said, am I still in FAZ? No! During this morning's gap down, I was at a 10% profit so I sold. Yum!
In review of the day's action, I wish I had re-bought later... I am expecting the market to fall more overnight. Today's trading action was confusing. The TRIN and TRINQ were bearish but the A/D was positive most of the day, I thought it best to just watch the show unfold. Therefore, by not being involved, I missed a great chance.
I'll get better.
Update (the next day): Durn good thing I didn't re-buy FAZ! This morning, the market was very strong.
Since this was our third lower day in a row, one hopes the process has begun. That said, am I still in FAZ? No! During this morning's gap down, I was at a 10% profit so I sold. Yum!
In review of the day's action, I wish I had re-bought later... I am expecting the market to fall more overnight. Today's trading action was confusing. The TRIN and TRINQ were bearish but the A/D was positive most of the day, I thought it best to just watch the show unfold. Therefore, by not being involved, I missed a great chance.
I'll get better.
Update (the next day): Durn good thing I didn't re-buy FAZ! This morning, the market was very strong.
Monday, April 27, 2009
A new trend forming?
Click for a larger image.
Funny thing, now that I've finally convinced myself that we are in a bullish market, the SPY may well be falling out. Yesterday was a lower high and today was even lower.
Not enough evidence to call it a downtrend, since the lows are higher, but, we may be on to something here: the market is definitely less interested in moving up.
If it is the beginnings of a several day downtrend, I can proudly say that I got in on the peak. I am carrying a small position in FAZ overnight. So far so good! At the close of today's trading, the market internals were mixed, but in my favor and my investment is currently up better than 2%.
I am actually looking for an SPY pull-back to about $78 which could take a week or possibly even two. That would make my FAZ trade well worthwhile, and then make the longer-term bull rally more powerful.
OBTW: I really couldn't find any satisfactory fundamentals in the $CYC index (see my post below) so I'll happily return focus to my list of short interest stocks once the bulls take over again.
Sunday, April 26, 2009
Another bullish indication, with cautions
There is a perfect index to watch in times like these; It is designed to be an early indicator of cycle change! It's called the $CYC, and is made up of 30 stocks. The index does show a rising 50 ma therefore many of its components must have a lot of strength in this market.
Click for larger image, browser back to return.
This list of its stock components is here.
Personally, I am not comfortable taking large long positions when the broad market is not uptrending, but some of these do deserve a place in my portfolio. I'll scour the list of 30 to create a short list based on the 50ma, then check the fundamentals of the survivors and weed out a few more. If the analysts are bullish on the remainders, next week I'll buy 1/4 positions in each for a longer term hold.
I guess this means that its time to start getting into the market.
That concept scares me due to the political-economic climate: I just can't understand how our country accepting unprecedented levels of debt, on mostly unproductive spending projects, most to occur in the out-years, with no plans to repay, printing money so we can spend even more, 300% growth of national debt, 400% increase in the size of government, many large projects still not addressed, the nationalism of many private corporations, increased terrorism threats, potential war escalation, increasing unemployment due (in part) to large businesses going bankrupt, 30% of small business owners working for free... ARRRRGGGG!
Why is this bullish? Because the chart says so. Ya gotta trade what you see, not what you expect.
Bonus Information (terror threat confirmation):
Military troops, National Guardsmen, and and Police guarding the Obamma Inauguration: 42,500.
U. S. Troops in Afghanistan: 31,000.
Have fun!
Click for larger image, browser back to return.
This list of its stock components is here.
Personally, I am not comfortable taking large long positions when the broad market is not uptrending, but some of these do deserve a place in my portfolio. I'll scour the list of 30 to create a short list based on the 50ma, then check the fundamentals of the survivors and weed out a few more. If the analysts are bullish on the remainders, next week I'll buy 1/4 positions in each for a longer term hold.
I guess this means that its time to start getting into the market.
That concept scares me due to the political-economic climate: I just can't understand how our country accepting unprecedented levels of debt, on mostly unproductive spending projects, most to occur in the out-years, with no plans to repay, printing money so we can spend even more, 300% growth of national debt, 400% increase in the size of government, many large projects still not addressed, the nationalism of many private corporations, increased terrorism threats, potential war escalation, increasing unemployment due (in part) to large businesses going bankrupt, 30% of small business owners working for free... ARRRRGGGG!
Why is this bullish? Because the chart says so. Ya gotta trade what you see, not what you expect.
Bonus Information (terror threat confirmation):
Military troops, National Guardsmen, and and Police guarding the Obamma Inauguration: 42,500.
U. S. Troops in Afghanistan: 31,000.
Have fun!
Saturday, April 25, 2009
The market seems to have picked a direction!
I have been slacking. I haven't looked thru my fav's for a while.
- SSO/SDS, Leveraged broad market index: Bull rally. Above the flattening 50 ma.
- FAS/FAZ, Financial Sector: FAZ, Choppy. Bull Rally. Above the declining 50 ma.
- ERX/ERY Energy Sector: ERY, Choppy. Forming a pendant. Above the rapidly declining 50 ma.
- TNA/TZA Small Cap Sector: TZA, Bull rally. Above the flattening 50 ma.
- BGU/BGZ Large Cap Sector: BGZ, Bull rally. Above the flattening 50 ma.
When the 50 day moving averages begin turning up, particularly the SSO, I'll be placing longer term positions in my retirement accounts. Will you?
Note to self: watch for the SPY to break (close above) $88, TNA at $29, BGU at $33, and FAS at $12.
- SSO/SDS, Leveraged broad market index: Bull rally. Above the flattening 50 ma.
- FAS/FAZ, Financial Sector: FAZ, Choppy. Bull Rally. Above the declining 50 ma.
- ERX/ERY Energy Sector: ERY, Choppy. Forming a pendant. Above the rapidly declining 50 ma.
- TNA/TZA Small Cap Sector: TZA, Bull rally. Above the flattening 50 ma.
- BGU/BGZ Large Cap Sector: BGZ, Bull rally. Above the flattening 50 ma.
When the 50 day moving averages begin turning up, particularly the SSO, I'll be placing longer term positions in my retirement accounts. Will you?
Note to self: watch for the SPY to break (close above) $88, TNA at $29, BGU at $33, and FAS at $12.
Friday, April 17, 2009
Just saying...
I noticed that FAZ, the Financial Bear fund is getting some intense volume. It is likely that some savvy institutions are expecting a market turn-around in the relatively near future.
Let the Bulls beware!
As always, click for larger image... browser/back to return.
Further confirmation: watch some of D7's recent videos, like this one, to see what is really going on the market.
I noticed that FAZ, the Financial Bear fund is getting some intense volume. It is likely that some savvy institutions are expecting a market turn-around in the relatively near future.
Let the Bulls beware!
As always, click for larger image... browser/back to return.
Further confirmation: watch some of D7's recent videos, like this one, to see what is really going on the market.
Thursday, April 9, 2009
Breaking News
In this article, we find that our government leaders are considering amnesty and citizenship for millions of illegal aliens. If passed, we can logically expect to find more people competing for a limited number of jobs. When the public has reduced employment opportunity, there will be less spending. Reduced spending cuts corporate earnings. Reduced corporate earnings, reduces the value of companies, and thus, stock Price.
In other news, SPY key resistance levels have broken!
Click for larger image.
This is about three weeks of 60 minute Price action. As you can see, The market has been remarkably flat until today. Finally, the trend has broken and the markets are on the way up for a while.
Does everyone know how to find a list of 'short interest' stocks? They are fun to own! Here is a three day chart of one that I bought this morning/sold this afternoon, GCI.
Have fun!
In other news, SPY key resistance levels have broken!
Click for larger image.
This is about three weeks of 60 minute Price action. As you can see, The market has been remarkably flat until today. Finally, the trend has broken and the markets are on the way up for a while.
Does everyone know how to find a list of 'short interest' stocks? They are fun to own! Here is a three day chart of one that I bought this morning/sold this afternoon, GCI.
Have fun!
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