Exciting!

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Hmm... Is that a reverse Head and Shoulders I see on the SPY weekly?
Yum!

Boring!

Here's the 60 minute, 4 week, SPY chart


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It was nice that last weeks pendant broke to the upside.
It was very nice to see yesterday's breakout.
It was not surprising to see today close at resistance (and no further).

But come on folks! We can't trade this! We need volume. We need a trend.

Here's the daily view:


Click for larger. Yada Yada.

We have been without a sense of direction for 10 days.

Reasons to be Bullish?
It has held up without submitting to the bears.
It closed at the high today.
It is testing the resistance line.
It has already broken resistance once.

Reasons to be Bearish?
The bulls do not seem to be committed.
The MACD is in divergence on the daily chart.
The news is bad.
The markets are extended and need to form a higher high.

As for me, I'm flat the market. On Monday, I'll day-trade what I see.
This is definitely not time to be invested in a long term position.

The sky is falling!

From the Ap Morning Brief...

"Chrysler may have been granted a fresh start, but it still faces old problems: how to sell enough cars and realign its fleet.... A 42-day stay in bankruptcy court cleansed the company of much of its debt and labor costs, but many analysts say Chrysler's immediate future is bleak. It lost $8 billion in 2008, and sales are down by almost half for the first five months of this year."

"Japan's benchmark Nikkei index pulling back from its first move above 10,000 in eight months amid conflicting signs about the strength of an economic recovery."

"...crude to fresh highs for the year."

"...the main reason that borrowers default on their home loans, foreclosures likely will remain elevated this year and into 2010. Many economists expect unemployment, now at 9.4 percent nationwide, to rise as high as 10 percent, and some project it will exceed the post-World War II record of 10.8 percent."

"China's trade plunged in May..."

"...confirms steep recessionTOKYO (AP) — Japan's economy shrank at a 14.2 percent annual pace in the first quarter — better than first thought, but still the worst quarterly contraction ever for the world's second-largest economy."

"Australia's unemployment rate rose to a seven-year high of 5.7 percent in May,..."

Prepare for liftoff ?

In this 60 minute/four week chart, we see a high base forming...


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The base has been tested several times. Each test reduces its strength, therefore, the market may be poised to do great things here. We'll see.

Auto Dealership Thought

"Peter J. Walsh, the owner of Walsh Dodge in Jersey City, N.J., started out selling used cars in his hometown 28 years ago after the birth of his daughter. He slowly built his business, and felt as if he'd finally made it when he earned his Chrysler shingle in 2000. But on Tuesday, Walsh Dodge will lose that shingle — as will 788 other dealers across the country... Chrysler has asked a bankruptcy court for permission to terminate the franchise agreements of about 25 percent of its dealers." from the AP Morning Brief

It occurs to me that Mr Walsh and many others have their entire careers wrapped up in the business of selling cars. He has worked hard to develop a following of devoted employees and customers.

Weather right or wrong, his contract with Chrysler is being dissolved by government decree. Being free from those bonds, he no longer has that business and no ties with any particular auto manufacturer.

He is now free to pursue the business he loves and prospers in, selling cars, if he so chooses. It seems to me that he is free to begin offering Honda's, Toyota's, Suzuki's, Hundai's, Nissan's and a myriad of high quality, popular, less encumbered, products.

The effect is that the courts have turned Chrysler's most powerful assets into their most fierce competitors.

That's how I'll be placing my trades.

Trade #3

I have been missing out!
I just found a whole slew of top performing ETF's that have been going up without me! Sheesh... look at KOL its awesome!


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Here is how to find these winners:
(It only works in a bull market)

1. Pick a screener that can limit results to ETF's... I like this one but membership might be required, I'm not sure. Also check here, and the Yahoo offering. There are more.

2. Set the YTD (or quarterly) performance to the highest value available, then run the screen.

3. Sort the list so that the highest performers float to the top.

4. Copy out the top 25 or so.

5. Cross out those with less than 60,000 Average Daily Volume (or pick a higher number)

6. Look for entry points on the 60 minute, 4 week chart. Buy when ready (MACD crossings are nice).

7. Set a stop based on the Parabolic SAR. Update the stop every couple of trading hours or so.

8. Repeat as required.

Optionally, this paradigm could be modified by substituting the word 'Daily' for '60 minute'.

For a lower maintenance version, choose less volitile ETF's. See INP, UGA, and SLV's recent activity.

Priceless

Recently, Michelle Obama went to serve food to the homeless at a government funded soup kitchen




Cost of a bowl of soup at homeless shelter $0.00 dollars

Having Michelle Obama Serve you your soup $0.00 dollars

Snapping a picture of a homeless person, receiving a government funded meal, while taking a picture of the First Lady, with his $500 BlackBerry: $ Priceless